Israel and Turkey - a Blip or The Shape of Things to Come?

This week, Turkey excluded Israel from participating in long-planned NATO joint military exercises. This was unusual and unexpected, especially considering that Israel and Turkey have had strong economic and military relations for years. So, the question arises: Is this a blip on the screen because the Turkish government is expressing anger at what it considers Israel's excessive use of force in Gaza? Or was Gaza just the excuse that Turkey's ruling Islamic party has long been looking for in order to permanently distance itself from Israel?

Two indicators point in the latter direction, despite Turkey's attempts to downplay the importance of the incident. First, Turkey has invited Syria to take part in the exercises in Israel's stead. A joint military maneuver with Syria can hardly be considered consistent with a continued strategic relationship with Israel.

Secondly, the Israeli foreign ministry has just called the acting Turkish ambassador on the carpet because a television drama shown on a Turkish state-sponsored station depicts an actor posing as an Israeli soldier deliberately shooting a young Palestinian girl at short range and lining up other Palestinians for a firing squad. Israeli foreign minister Lieberman correctly describes this as "the most serious level of incitement." This also does not give Israelis cause for optimism about the long term relationship.

If Turkey is so adamant about wrecking its relationship with Israel, why then does it not simply come out and say so? Perhaps because being too open about such a policy would strain relations with the west, and, specifically, would jeopardize Turkey's already shaky chances for European Union membership, which it has sought for some time.

Before the Turkish government goes too far down this road, it should ask itself how much it has to gain by doing so, and how much it will lose.